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FEB
27
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US Open- Relief Rally, Oil’s make or break moment, Gold struggles

US Open- Relief Rally, Oil’s make or break moment, Gold struggles - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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US stocks are showing signs of life after four days of pain.  Coronavirus fears are leading markets to price in more easing from Fed and even Germany seems closer to delivering fiscal stimulus.  The recent market carnage saw the S&P 500 futures fall 9% from the record high and investors are nervous we could see further short-term weakness as history suggests outbreaks could take several months before the longer-term bullish trend reasserts itself.   Longer-term investors might be waiting until the pullback reaches the 10% or 15% thresholds before jumping back in.  The virus is still spreading as global coronavirus cases exceed 80,000 and has reached 33 countries. 

The headlines today were somewhat positive today after positive comments from the EU health minister and WHO EU Director, Germany signaled they may finally be ready to fiscal stimulus, and US new home sales surged 7.9% to 764,000 homes, the biggest gain since July 2007.  If today’s rally holds up, that does give the all clear to pile back into stocks.  Until the global spreading of the virus appears under control, we could see continued downward revisions to growth forecasts.  Brazil announced their first positive test of the coronavirus and if this spreads further into Latin America, we could see another wave of risk aversion. 

 Oil

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FEB
26
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European Open – Risk-off, Coronavirus, Gold, Oil

European Open - Risk-off, Coronavirus, Gold, Oil - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Stocks Plunge on Coronavirus Fears

Coronavirus may have been headline news for most of us for the last month but it’s taken until this week to truly infect the markets, as investors flee risk amid a growing belief that we have a full blown pandemic on our hands.

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FEB
26
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A pause for breath?

A pause for breath? - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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In what has become a familiar pattern over the past few days, trading in Wall Street indices has taken on a mildly bullish tone following the hefty decline the previous day. The same thing happened yesterday, only for the gains, and more, to be wiped out during the US session. Let’s see what today holds.

Since the US close, the US30 index has risen 0.42% and the NAS100 0.53%. The rebound in the China50 index is more pronounced, with a rally of more than 2% while the HongKong33 index is up just over 1%.

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FEB
26
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Asia Morning: Another Tough Day At The Office

It was another tough day at the office for US markets overnight, all three leading indices falling by around 3.0% as the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) warned it was when, not if, Covid-19 coronavirus would arrive in the United States. The dead cat bounce seen in Asia yesterday was quickly consigned to oblivion once Europe arrived. That theme continued throughout the rest of the day as the world reassessed the economic implications of the coronavirus’ arrive in multiple countries—Notably Iran and in Italy.

 

US bond yields fell aggressively – with the US 10-year now yielding 1.31% – as investors fled for the safety of government debt. Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut reached a deafening level, premature as that may be. That was aided by the CB Consumer Confidence falling to 130.70 from 132.00 previously, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for February plunging to -2 from 13. The triumph of reality over head-in-the-sand optimism has been long overdue with a procession of US companies warning about the adverse effects of the coronavirus outbreak on their supply chains and finances.

 

The Western world may want to take a leaf out of Asia’s playbook in responding to the coronavirus slowdown though. Another set of mindless rate cuts may temporarily restore confidence but are likely to be limited in effect. The simple reason is that one can cut rates all they like to give a temporary boost in confidence to asset markets; it means not a jot to SME’s for whom cashflow is King. SME’s, the backbone of employment in most economies, require cashflow to pay wages, invoices, taxes etc. at the end of each month.

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FEB
26
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Daily Markets Broadcast 2020-02-26

Daily Markets Broadcast 2020-02-26 - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Daily Markets Broadcast

2020-02-26

Wall Street drop continues on virus fears

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FEB
26
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Is fear of a Sanders presidency bern-ing markets?

Is fear of a Sanders presidency bern-ing markets? - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Fears about the spread of coronavirus, to be sure. But a chorus of analysts also thinks concerns about Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic presidential nomination — and possibly even the presidency — are also contributing to jitters.

“The risk to US stocks is pretty significant if Bernie gets the nomination,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst with OANDA. “I think there is concern that in some of these battleground states Bernie is beating Trump. If he does maintain that momentum, it would be very concerning to Wall Street.”

Of course, “concerning” Wall Street is precisely what Sanders is after. Last June, the longtime Democratic Socialist put it this way in a tweet:

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FEB
25
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US Open – Carnage pause, Treasury yields remain heavy, Home Depot impresses, Oil looks vulnerable, Gold’s pullback, Bitcoin softens, LATAM under pressure

US Open – Carnage pause, Treasury yields remain heavy, Home Depot impresses, Oil looks vulnerable, Gold’s pullback, Bitcoin softens, LATAM under pressure - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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The day after the Dow’s worst drop in two years is showing a small bounce that is getting faded. It seems Wall Street is prepared to shift V-shaped recovery calls to U-shaped ones.  While China is showing progress with the coronavirus, the global spread continues as Afghanistan, Kuwait and Bahrain now have confirmed their first cases.  Optimism is growing in China as some regions end their travel bans and see a resumption of normal activities.  Financial markets however will not likely see a strong rebound until the virus stops spreading in the Middle East and Europe.  The Dow is down just over 5% from the record high that was made in the middle of this month.  Risk aversion could easily remain in place over the next couple weeks on pandemic fears and the investors may choose to wait to see if the selloff hits the 10% or 15% thresholds before jumping back in.

Treasuries/FX

Pandemic fears are fueling the safe-haven that could help the 10-year Treasury yields make a run toward 1.318%, the all-time low.  Even if the virus is contained in Italy, the damage has been done to sentiment.  Global recession fears will likely grow in the coming weeks and that should keep demand high for Treasuries. The dollar will play catchup and could shine against the euro and target the post-debt crisis low of $1.04.

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FEB
25
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European update – Markets, COVID-19, gold, oil

European update - Markets, COVID-19, gold, oil - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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That Didn’t Last Long

The stock market bounce was modest and short-lived in early European trade on Tuesday, as investors continue to fret about the likelihood of COVID-19 becoming a full blown pandemic.

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FEB
25
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OANDA Business Breakfast on Jazz FM (Podcast)

OANDA Business Breakfast on Jazz FM (Podcast) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the day’s business and market news on this morning’s Jazz FM Business Breakfast with presenter Michael Wilson. This morning they discuss Monday’s stock market sell-off, the EU’s negotiating mandate for trade talks with the UK and more.

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FEB
25
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Asia’s Morning: Is All the Bad News Priced In?

Unless you were living on Mars – and in these days of connectivity that’s no excuse – you could not have missed the carnage that swept across financial markets overnight, driving by potential coronavirus pandemic fears. Equity, commodity and energy prices were crushed, bond yields sank, the US Dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen all rose in a classic pattern of sell everything, move into cash.

 

However, Asia is refusing to follow yesterday’s panic sell everything scripts this morning. The S&P 500 fell by 3.55% overnight, but this morning, the aftermarket S&P 500 e-mini futures have risen by nearly 1.0%. Additionally, some regional stock markets except are actually in the green today; notably South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, and the home to Asia’s Game of Thrones, Malaysia. (more on this later)

 

The Nikkei has been punished this morning, but it was closed yesterday and is thus only playing catch-up to Asia’s sell-off yesterday. Indeed, for once the tail has wagged the dog, with Asia’s sell-off yesterday, leading the coronavirus sell-offs that followed across the globe. To be sure, the bounce in the e-mini futures this morning has lent some support to regional markets.

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