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The research analysts are spread across three different time zones, covering the economic news and market action.

OCT
23
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Mid-Market Update: OANDA – Pelosi “Just about there”, Claims improve but still high, Housing Sales on Fire, Earnings recap, Record cases in Europe, Oil rallies, Gold at $1900

US stocks are having a rollercoaster trading session.  Early earnings reports from Southwest Airlines, Freeport McMoran, Coca-Cola, and AT&T mostly provided strong earnings and revenue beats.  After the morning’s economic data, a confirmation that recovery is slowing, equities gave back most of their gains. 

In what was possibly going to be an update with minimal focus on stimulus, enter Nancy Pelosi.  S&P 500 futures surged after House Speaker Pelosi said they are �just about there’ with the stimulus deal.  Pelosi’s comment indicates more progress has been made, but what is also needed is Senate Majority Leader McConnell’s blessing.  The biggest hurdles remain state aid and liability provisions, which means optimism should be minimal. 

Trump was hoping to have a stimulus deal in place by now to keep voters optimistic that the government has their back.В  Each day that passes, more Americans have casted their ballots (over 40 million as of yesterday) and the impact of a stimulus deal for President Trump is less.В  Tonight, Americans will watch the final debate between President Trump and former-VP Biden and see if it will have a definitive winner for the roughly 8% of undecided voters.В  This debate is not expected to be a circus like the last one, but an opportunity for Americans to hear more from Biden.В 

Jobless Claims

The good news is jobless claims improved significantly, posting the lowest reading since mid-March.  The bad news is that Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program rose over 500,000 to 3.3 million Americans.  The ugly news is that over 22 million Americans are still participating in one of the unemployment insurance programs. Jobless claims finally broke below the 800,000 level but still nowhere near the pre-pandemic 200,000 area.  President Trump will view this report as progress the economy is headed in the right direction, but the argument can easily be made that this trend won’t last and that stimulus is very much warranted now. 

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OCT
22
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USD/CAD calm on light data calendar

USD/CAD calm on light data calendar - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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USD/CAD is drifting for a second successive day. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3131, up 0.11% on the day.

US jobless claims sparkle

The weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report had an excellent week, with a gain of 787 thousand. This crushed the estimate of 860 thousand and was the lowest figure since mid-March, prior to the spread of Covid-19, which led to skyrocketing unemployment numbers. However, the positive news was tempered by the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which slowed to 0.7% in September. The reading missed the consensus of 0.8%. The weakening pace of improvement is a sign that US recovery could be losing steam in the fourth quarter. The index posted a 1.4% increase in August and a 2.o percent gain in July. The Canadian dollar has shown a muted response to the mixed data on Thursday.

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OCT
22
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Business Breakfast Podcast (Episode 85)

Business Breakfast Podcast (Episode 85) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam previews the day’s business and market news with Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Michael Wilson. This morning they discussed Brexit talks restarting, UK borrowing and restrictions as the Chancellor plans new support measures.

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OCT
22
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Oil pares losses, gold suffering a hangover

Oil pares losses, gold suffering a hangover - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Oil gets a reality check

Oil is trading a little higher on Thursday, after pulling back towards the middle of their post summer range over the last couple of sessions.

Crude prices had gathered some significant bullish momentum and were testing the upper end of these ranges despite there still being major downside risks. It seems that trade was a little overcrowded and once the profit taking kicked it, it quickly accelerated back to a more reasonable level.

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OCT
22
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US Open – Stimulus reality sinking in

Investors adopting more caution

Optimism is wearing thin as another day passes and talks are continuing in Washington for much needed stimulus ahead of the election.

Such is the importance of a stimulus package that it’s completely overshadowing the election itself with less than two weeks to go. And yet, it’s looking increasingly unlikely it’s going to happen. Even if Mnuchin and Pelosi can bridge the gap that remains, which is far from guaranteed, there seems a very strong chance the Senate will just reject it anyway.

Perhaps that reality setting in is what’s weighing on these markets now. Any delay in support being passed will be damaging for the economic recovery in the US and the task of finding a compromise may not be any easier after the eletion if the Republicans hold the Senate. We could be faced with a damaging delay and smaller stimulus than is being discussed now.

While the polls are still strongly favouring Biden heading into election day, the Senate is a much closer race so there’s still a considerable amount of uncertainty as we approach November 3rd. And that’s before you factor in the delays caused by postal voting and the possibility of a contested result. This may weigh on sentiment in the markets over the next couple of weeks.

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OCT
22
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NZD/USD rally continues, CPI next

NZD/USD rally continues, CPI next - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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NZD/USD has moved slightly upwards on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6662, up 0.14% on the day. The pair registered sharp gains on Wednesday, climbing 1.1% as the US dollar sustained broad losses as fiscal stimulus talks remained deadlocked.

Investors eye NZ inflation

New Zealand will release consumer inflation for Q3 later on Thursday. Since inflation is released on a quarterly, rather than a monthly basis, each release could have a magnified impact on NZD/USD. The consensus is that inflation will post a solid gain of 0.9%, after a shocking decline of -0.5% in the second quarter. It marked the first quarterly decline since January 2016, reflecting the sharp economic downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic. New Zealand has reported only 25 deaths from Covid-19, but the economy has been hit hard by the ensuing lockdown as well as curtailed global demand for New Zealand exports.

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OCT
22
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Euro area government deficit at 0.6% and EU at 0.5% of GDP

In 2019, the government deficit of both the euro area and the EU increased in relative terms compared with 2018, while the government debt declined in both zones. In the euro area the government deficit to GDP ratio rose from 0.5% in 2018 to 0.6% in 2019, and in the EU from 0.4% to 0.5%. In the euro area the government debt to GDP ratio decreased from 85.8% at the end of 2018 to 84.0% at the end of 2019, and in the EU from 79.5% to 77.6%.

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OCT
22
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Government debt up to 95.1% of GDP in euro area

At the end of the second quarter of 2020, the quarter in which the impacts of the containment measures as well as policy responses to the containment measures fully materialised in increased financing needs, the government debt to GDP ratio in the euro area stood at 95.1%, compared with 86.3% at the end of the first quarter of 2020. In the EU, the ratio increased from 79.4% to 87.8%. Compared with the second quarter of 2019, the government debt to GDP ratio rose in both the euro area (from 86.2% to 95.1%) and the EU (from 79.7% to 87.8%). The sharp increases are due to two factors: government debt increasing sharply, and GDP decreasing.

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OCT
22
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Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 11.6% of GDP in the euro area and 11.4% of GDP in the EU

In the second quarter of 2020, marked by COVID-19 containment measures in all Member States, the seasonally adjusted general government deficit to GDP ratio stood at 11.6% in the euro area and 11.4% in the EU. The second quarter of 2020 saw both the highest deficit recorded in the euro area and the EU since the start of the time series as well as the sharpest quarter on quarter increase. In the second quarter of 2020, all Member States recorded a government deficit.

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OCT
22
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Oil slips, dollar sends gold lower

Oil slips, dollar sends gold lower - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Oil markets were long and wrong

Oil markets fell to earth overnight, with both Brent crude and WTI suffering heavy losses after the official US crude inventory data. Although crude inventories fell as expected by 1.0 million barrels, gasoline stocks unexpectedly rose by 1.90 million barrels. That spooked investors, who ignored the fall in distillates, worried that the spike in Covid-19 cases was starting to hit US consumption. Brent crude fell 2.50% to USD41.30, and WTI fell by 2.75% to USD40.00 a barrel.

Likely, though, oil markets were primed for a correction lower. Oil traders had spent the week pushing crude prices higher in anticipation of a US fiscal stimulus deal getting over the line. Ignoring the risks to that premise as other markets had been doing. Simply put, oil markets found themselves very long and wrong at the top of the week’s range, and with the risk tone in markets suddenly cautious yesterday, everybody ran for the exit door at once.

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