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JUL
06
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Oil Slightly Higher, Gold Consolidates in Asia

Oil Slightly Higher, Gold Consolidates in Asia - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Oil rises slightly in Asia

With the US closed on Friday, Asian markets had precious little direction to start the week. Like currency markets, oil traders are reluctant to jump all in on the recovery momentum displayed by equity markets today. Oil prices seem evenly balanced between opposing forces at the moment. On the one hand, the procession of economic data released last week is emphasising that a global recovery is underway for now. On the other, having rallied so far on so little since mid-March, nagging doubts over the recovery’s longevity are capping gains.

Chief amongst those, is the explosion of Covid-19 across the US sunbelt, as well as an increase in new localised lockdowns across countries that have ostensibly reopened. Fears that this could derail consumption growth is tempering exuberance of the most ardent bulls at the moment.

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JUL
06
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Volume of retail trade up by 17.8% in euro area

In May 2020, when Member States began easing the COVID-19 containment measures, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 17.8% in the euro area and by 16.4% in the EU, compared with April 2020, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In April 2020, the retail trade volume decreased by 12.1% in the euro area and by 11.4% in the EU.

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JUL
06
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A bright start for Asia

A bright start for Asia - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Following a US holiday on Friday, Asia has shrugged off the Covid-19 clouds that dominated the weekend press and is basking in a positive start to the week. Asian equity markets have made a strong start, with the US dollar easing lower across the board.

Financial markets have long shown a herd immunity to the Covid-19 pandemic, although the headlines across the weekend gave no solace to the real world. Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc across the US Sunbelt and Latin America, while a disturbing trend of localised lockdown has emerged internationally, stretching from Australia to Spain and onto Great Britain. However, only Australian markets appear to reflect those concerns this morning.

Australia and Malaysia rate decisions

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JUL
06
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Asian equity markets are off to a strong start

Asian equity markets are off to a strong start - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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No news is good news

The new trading week has started out on a positive note. Taking a look at the Asian markets, equities have leapt higher on Monday morning, along with US Index Futures, as the ‘no new news is good news’ trade resumes. The Bank of Japan increasing its targeted 5 and 10-year JGB buying targets proves yet again that global central banks have got investors’ backs. That has ensured the Nikkei 225 is off to a positive start, rising 1.55% today.

The Kospi is up by 0.80%, boosted by a jump in LG Electronics. Over in China, the financial sector and real estate stocks are leading the way higher yet again, in a repeat of Friday’s price action. The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have risen by 2.0%.

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JUL
04
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Market Insights Podcast (Episode 119)

Market Insights Podcast (Episode 119) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart looks back on the week’s business and markets news with OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam.

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JUL
04
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Week Ahead – Economic Reopening Continues

Key Economic Events

Monday 6th July

Time (UK)CountryRelevanceIndicator NamePeriod
01:30Hong KongMediumIHS Markit PMIJun
09:30United KingdomMediumMarkit/CIPS Cons PMIJun
10:00Euro ZoneMediumRetail Sales MMMay
10:00Euro ZoneMediumRetail Sales YYMay
14:45United StatesHighMarkit Comp Final PMIJun
14:45United StatesHighMarkit Svcs PMI FinalJun
15:00United StatesHighISM N-Mfg PMIJun

 

Tuesday 7th July

05:30AustraliaHighRBA Cash RateJul
07:00Czech RepublicMediumUnemployment RateJun
08:00Czech RepublicMediumIndustrial Output YYMay
08:00Czech RepublicMediumTrade BalanceMay
15:00United StatesMediumJOLTS Job OpeningsMay
21:30United StatesNot RatedAPI weekly crude stocks29 Jun, w/e

 

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JUL
04
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European Wrap – Grand Reopening Put to the Test

Ease into the Weekend

An understandably tame end to the trading week, as participants in the US celebrate Independence Day and those of us in the UK eye the reopening of certain establishments tomorrow.

All in all, it’s not exactly been a week of tremendous change, the grand reopening is proving a little less grand and a little more problematic. Certain US states have been forced to halt or reverse their plans as COVID cases have spiked while the UK is pushing ahead at its plans to further ease restrictions from tomorrow, with the reduction in social distancing from two metres to one metre plus allowing for a number of establishments in the hospitality and other industries to reopen.

Super Saturday, as it’s been termed, will be an interesting test of how bad any second wave in the UK is going to be. We’ve already seen what happens in pockets of the country as lockdown measures have eased, the next couple of weeks could be the start of a major setback. Lets all hope not.

It may also give us some insight into what kind of recovery we are in for. Just how keen are people going to be to put themselves in situations around large numbers of people, even if they’re observing the rules. Given all the excitement that’s brewing, I imagine the excitement may prove too much. Good for the economy and businesses that have been devastated by the virus, bad if it leads to them being forced to close again, as we’ve seen elsewhere.

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JUL
04
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ECB’s Lagarde faces epic challenge in coronavirus

As major world economies continue to struggle in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, central banks have taken a prominent role in the campaign to stabilize the global economy.

In particular, the US Federal Reserve and the European Community Bank have been at the forefront of this effort. In March, in a move coordinated with other major central banks, the Fed slashed interest rates close to zero and also announced a massive quantitative easing (QE) program of $700 billion.

The ECB was not part of that rate-cutting exercise, for the simple reason that its interest rates are already at zero. However, the ECB announced a QE program totaling 750 billion euros, called the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).

For the ECB and its new president, the timing of the corona crisis presents a huge challenge. Christine Lagarde took over from Mario Draghi as President of the ECB at the end of 2019, shortly before the Corvid-19 pandemic would ravage the eurozone and other major economies. Lagarde joined the ECB after eight years as president of the International Monetary Fund (2011-2018).

How will Lagarde handle this global crisis?

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JUL
04
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AUD/USD rises towards symbolic 70 line

It has been a good week for AUD/USD. The pair has gained 1.1 percent, its strongest weekly gains since the first week of June. On Friday, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6940, up 0.28% on the day. It’s the Fourth of July, so US markets are closed for a national holiday. There are no Australian events on the schedule, so traders can expect a quiet end to the week.

The Aussie has been an absolute steam-roller in the second quarter, with sizzling gains of 12% during that time. This is somewhat surprising, as the Chinese economy has been hit hard by COVID-19, and China is Australia’s largest trading partner. As a risk currency, one would have expected investors to keep their distance from the Australian dollar in a time of heightened uncertainty and anxiety.

Instead, the Aussie has gone on a tear against the US dollar, which is considered a safe-haven in times of trouble. The coronavirus has taken a huge human and economic toll on the United States, and the country now has the largest number of coronavirus deaths, at over 100,000. Although the US is showing signs of recovery, with improved numbers in manufacturing, services and employment, investors have not been attracted to the greenback, and the Aussie has taken full advantage of the situation.

Over in China, there was positive news from the services sector on Thursday. The Caixin Services PMI accelerated for a fourth straight month, climbing form 55.0 to 58.4 in June. In February, the PMI stood at just 26.5, so the rate of recovery has been impressive. The manufacturing industry is steady, with three consecutive readings just above the 50-level, which separates construction from expansion. However, manufacturing numbers will need to improve in order to give the Chinese economy a much-needed boost.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

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JUL
04
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GBP/USD Yawns Despite Strong NFP

US Nonfarm Payrolls impress, but pound yawns

It has been a quiet day on the currency markets, which have shown little movement in the Asian and European sessions. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2457, down 0.08 percent on the day. With US markets closed for the 4th July Independence Day holiday, we can expect more of the same in the North American session.

It has been an uneventful week for the British pound, despite the release of key indicators on both sides of the pond. On Tuesday, the UK released Final GDP for the first quarter. The release was downwardly revised from -2.0% to -2.2%, reflecting the harsh impact of COVID-19 on the British economy. The dismal figure was the sharpest contraction for the economy since 1979. Analysts expect a rebound in Q2, as lockdown measures have significantly eased. At the same time, a ‘second wave’ of the coronavirus later in the year could devastate the fragile UK economy and send the pound to lower levels.

In the US, a solid non-farm payroll report failed to stir up the markets. In April, non-farm payrolls plunged by a staggering 20 million. However, the economy has regained its footing somewhat since then. The June jobs report showed that payrolls climbed 4.80 million, which comes after a May release of 2.509 million. On Friday, British Services PMI came in at 47.1, upwardly revised from the initial reading of 470 points. This points to contraction in the services sector, but the good news is that the PMI has rebounded sharply – in April, the index came in at an abysmal 13.4 points, indicating severe contraction.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

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