fbpx
DEC
10
Comments

Commodities Weekly: Gold slides on upbeat US jobs

 

The strong jobs report last Friday boosted risk appetite to the detriment of safe havens but lifted oil prices. The agricultural sector is mixed ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the US Department of Agriculture.

 

Precious metals

GOLD prices fell the most in a month last Friday after the US jobs report showed 266,000 jobs had been added in November, the biggest monthly gain since January. The decline meant that the precious metal remained capped by the 55-day moving average at 1,481.98 since November 5. China’s gold reserves stabilized at 62.6 million ounces at the end of November, according to the People’s Bank of China website.

Speculative investors boosted net long positioning to levels not seen since the week of September 24 in the week to December 3, according to the latest data snapshot from CFTC. Gold has been stuck in a downward-sloping channel which began from September 4 which has upper and lower parameters of 1,490 and 1,430, respectively today.

Continue reading
DEC
10
Comments

Asia Enters the Holding Pattern This Morning

Financial markets are suffering from trade fatigue today. Crammed into economy, entering the holding pattern, and awaiting an uncertain trade-deal arrival time. The chronic headline fatigue that is the lot of financial markets in recent times is threatening a case of deep-blame thrombosis. In years past the markets could have amused themselves with other macro-economic distractions to pass the time. But Brexit is a localised issue, not a global one, and ten years of zero interest rate central bank monetary policy has killed volatility. At least in an aeroplane, time in the holding pattern is limited by the amount of fuel onboard. Politics suffers no such performance limitations sadly.

Markets have seized on China’s falling export data as a sign that the global economy is wilting, ignoring spectacular US data last Friday and that China’s imports increased well above forecast. Someone somewhere on the Mainland is busy making something. The fatigue syndrome of the previous two days probably has as much to do with the world being max long the FOMO global recovery trade, i.e. long equities, as worries over China’s economic health. Another effect of the ZIRP-decade is that the global economy is now a two-horse game; the US and China, with the rest of us merely satellites whose fate is now inextricably tied to both.

Markets are unlikely to get much relief from the FOMC and ECB policy announcements either. It will be steady as she goes from both as the FOMC basks in the light of last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll and earnings data. Meanwhile, the ECB will insist that they are not the “English Patient,” and that there is light at the end of the tunnel, but will maintain their “loose” monetary bias.

We thus circle back to the US-China trade negotiations, which sadly remain global markets only game in town. December the 15th is approaching quickly, and I still believe that an interim trade agreement is possible, but maybe not probable before then. Given the tortuous path that has been walked to even get to this point, I dread to think of what will be required to reach a comprehensive one. An interim trade agreement, it should be noted, only keeps the lights on in the global economy, and even that is not guaranteed. With monetary policy reaching its limits in so many parts of the world, the phrase “every man for himself” could well be a theme of 2020.

Equities

Continue reading
DEC
10
Comments

Asia Morning: Asia Enters the Holding Pattern

Prepared by Jeff Halley, Senior Market Analyst

 

It’s one of those dreaded announcements that passengers, especially near the end of a long haul flight, don’t want to hear.  We all know the story.  You have sat for long, arduous hours in an economy seat that seems to get smaller each year; behind the sets of new-age parents on the annual holiday migration home. The ones who are periodically spraying aromatherapy fragrances, yet outsource the disciplining of their feral children to tablet computers or the surrounding passengers.

The captain announces over the speaker, apologetically, that due to weather (North America), congestion (Heathrow), strikes (anywhere in France), or one centimetre of snow or some leaves on the taxiway (Heathrow again), the aircraft will have to enter the holding pattern and “wait” for clearance to land. The bar has closed, but those unruly Australian, Russian and Scandinavian passengers down the back, determined to maximise the value of their airline tickets, had drunk it dry anyway; having had their duty free booze confiscated by the cabin crew earlier.

In moments like this, even a “brace, brace, brace” call is more appealing; as an increasingly impatient little Jemima or Justin in front of you, kicks the chair and moves it back and forth for the 25th time. On number 13, you ended up with tepid airline coffee on your clothes, and you now smell of it.

Continue reading
DEC
10
Comments

Daily Markets Broadcast 2019-12-10

Daily Markets Broadcast 2019-12-10 - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Home/Daily Markets Broadcast/DAX/FTSE/Indices/Market Pulse/Technical Analysis/Technical Analysis Indices

Share 0

Daily Markets Broadcast

2019-12-10

Wall Street loses momentum

Continue reading
DEC
10
Comments

Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities

Copyright

© absau

DEC
10
Comments

Information Paper: Impacts of forthcoming changes to Lending Indicators

Introduction

The first release of Lending Indicators (cat. no. 5601.0) on 17 December 2019 will be based on improved data from a new collection known as the Economic and Financial Statistics (EFS) collection. This replaces the previous publication Lending to Households and Businesses. Previously, data was sourced from the ‘domestic books’ collection which had not been updated since the early 2000s. This change was discussed in an earlier information paper (Information Paper: Upcoming changes to Lending to Households and Businesses, Australia, 2019 (cat. no. 5601.0.55.002)).

As part of its role, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) collects data from financial institutions for the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Over the past few years, APRA, the ABS, the RBA and industry have worked together to modernise the collection. This has been a large and complex project, involving considerable collaboration between the three agencies and industry.

EFS will give better quality data through, for example:

  • much better guidance on what to report, so institutions can provide consistent data;
  • updated definitions to align with international standards for compiling economic statistics; and
  • more detailed data on home loans including to investors and first home buyers.

This paper summarises at a high level the indicative impact of the new and improved EFS collection compared to the domestic books collection on key statistics for housing, personal and business finance. It also discusses changes to the presentation of key statistics that will be published for the first time in the October 2019 issue ofLending Indicators.

Data Quality Note

Continue reading

Copyright

© absau

DEC
10
Comments

Labour Account Australia, Quarterly Experimental Estimates

Copyright

© absau

DEC
10
Comments

USMCA Hopes Drive Peso and Loonie Higher

USMCA Hopes Drive Peso and Loonie Higher - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Home/CAD/Economic Exposure/FX/MXN

Share 0

The Trump administration could finally get USCMA, also known as NAFTA 2.0 pushed through before end of the year.  After some mixed wires from CNBC, the news out of DC is that House Democrats and the Trump administration have reached a handshake agreement on USMCA and that a possible vote could occur on December 18th.

A ratification of Trump’s rewrite of the trade deal with Mexico and Canada could be a key catalyst in resolving some certainty for business going into next year.  The US is still using the current NAFTA agreement and we will see this new deal only provide some incremental changes.  Both sides of the aisle are hopeful that this deal will get done even as the President is going through impeachment proceedings.  If this deal gets done over the next couple weeks, it will remove a key market uncertainty and can provide the Mexican peso with significant upside expectations.  Emerging market currencies could also have some follow through gains on this optimism over the USMCA trade deal.

The loonie also rallied today, but its gains will be limited as downside risks firmly remain in place for the Canadian economy.

Continue reading
DEC
10
Comments

Global economic growth at four-month high in November

Global economic growth at four-month high in November
  • Global PMI growth picks up in manufacturing and services,though trade acts as ongoing drag
  • US leads rich-world growth amid subdued trends in the UK,Eurozone and Japan. Emerging market expansion buoyed by China andIndia
  • Key sectors such as autos and machinery making return to growthafter steep downturns

Worldwide growth picked up in November, led by the fastestmanufacturing expansion seen so far this year. Key sectors such asautos and machinery equipment makers showed promising signs ofreturn to growth, while service sector growth also perked up.However, the overall worldwide pace of expansion remained one ofthe weakest seen in recent years, largely due to a sustained fallin global trade, with especially subdued trends recorded indeveloped world markets.

Global PMI at four-month high

At 51.5 in November, the JPMorgan Global PMI™ (compiled by IHS Markit) rose toa four-month high, recovering some poise after slumping in Octoberto its lowest since February 2016. The latest reading neverthelessremains one of the lowest recorded over the past four years,comparable with global GDP rising at an annual rate of just below2% (at market prices), meaning fourth quarter growth is likely tobe among the weakest seen over the past decade.

Manufacturing showed further tentative signs of improvement,with the global factory output index rising for a fourth month in arow to reach the highest so far this year, accompanied by the firstacceleration in service sector growth for four months. Both sectorsnevertheless continued to grow at some of the weakest rates sinceearly-2016, in part reflecting subdued global trade.

Global goods trade, which led the economic slowdown in 2018,continued to deteriorate at an historically marked rate, acting asa drag on growth. Global service sector exports likewise fell. Thatsaid, overall global growth of new orders showed the largest gainfor four months, hinting at improved domestic demand in some of theworld's key markets.

Continue reading

Copyright

© IHSMarkit

DEC
10
Comments

Dollar slips vs yen, Swiss franc as Chinese data hurts risk appetite

Dollar slips vs yen, Swiss franc as Chinese data hurts risk appetite - MarketPulseMarketPulse

Home/Currency/Forex News Round Up/FX

Share 0

The dollar slipped against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Monday as weak Chinese export data dented risk appetite and highlighted the economic damage from the 17-month-long trade war, while the pound rose on the latest polls ahead of this week’s British election.

China’s exports in November shrank for the fourth consecutive month, underscoring persistent pressures on manufacturers from the Sino-U.S. trade war.

Against the Japanese yen, which tends to benefit during geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the worlds biggest creditor nation, the dollar was 0.03% lower at 108.62 yen. The greenback was down 0.1% against the Swiss franc.

Continue reading
 
     
 

Latest Spot Rate

 
Wait a minute, while we are rendering the calendar
How It Works | About | Contact | Privacy Policy | Advertise
© 2009 - 2019 ChatPips. All Rights Reserved. Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.