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JAN
25
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OANDA Market Insights – Episode 98 (Podcast)

OANDA Market Insights - Episode 98 (Podcast) - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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OANDA Senior Market Analysts in London and New York, Craig Erlam and Ed Moya, discuss the latest business and market news with Jazz FM Business Breakfast presenter Jonny Hart.

On this week’s podcast, Jonny and Craig discuss the outbreak of Coronavirus and its impact on the markets, the ECB and next week’s Bank of England meeting. Jonny is then joined by Ed to preview the Fed meeting and provide an update on US earnings season.

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JAN
25
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Week Ahead – Central banks back to the fore

Coronavirus developments closely monitored

What a start to the year it’s been. There was so much that could have gone wrong in the opening weeks of 2020 and yet, it’s been the completely unexpected that’s rocked the markets.

This week it was the spread of Coronavirus that’s making investors nervous. We’re not in full panic mode just yet but there’s clearly tensions building and the near-3% declines in China on the final day of trading before the new year holiday is a prime example of that.

Central banks come back to the fore next week with a possible rate cut from the Bank of England and first Federal Reserve meeting of the year the standout events. The meeting marks a end to a messy tenure for BoE Governor Mark Carney and he could be going out with one final rate cut.

Key Economic Events This Week

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JAN
25
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Flash Australia PMI sinks to a survey-record low at start of 2020

Flash Australia PMI sinks to a survey-record low at start of 2020
  • Flash Australia PMI at 48.6 in January, signals a poor start tothe new year
  • Downturn led by manufacturing
  • Strengthening demand for services point to potential recoveryahead

Flash PMI data signalled a deeper downturn in Australia'sprivate sector economy at the start of the year, with the headlineindex falling to a survey-record low during January. However, thesurvey's more forward-looking indicators suggest that the downturncould bottom out in coming months. There were also signs ofstrengthening export growth amid an easing in the US-Chinatensions.

Manufacturing-led decline

The Commonwealth Bank Australia FlashPMI, compiled by IHS Markit and covering both themanufacturing and service sectors, fell to 48.6 in January, downfrom 49.6 in December and signalling a contraction of businessactivity for a third month running. The latest reading was thelowest since data collection began in May 2016.

The ongoing weakness was led by a fifth straight monthly fall inmanufacturing output, which represents the longest continualdecline in goods production in the survey's history. The productiondownturn was primarily fuelled by deteriorating domestic demand, inturn often linked by firms participating in the surveys to thesoftening building industry and drought-related disruptions.

Service sector business activity declined further, mainlyreflecting the negative impact of drought conditions and bushfireson consumer spending. The pace of contraction accelerated to thefastest for nearly a year.

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JAN
24
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Stocks shake off virus fears to punch higher on rosy earnings reports

Stocks shake off virus fears to punch higher on rosy earnings reports - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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U.S. stocks climbed on opening Friday, with equity benchmarks set to end the week mostly higher, despite anxieties around a fast-moving Asia flu outbreak that has seen death tolls rise in China. Investor optimism following quarterly results buoyed shares of companies like Intel Corp. and American Express.

How are benchmarks performing?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.06% opened about 69 points or 0.2% higher, near 29,230, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.24% opened about 7 points, 0.2%, higher, near 3,332. The Nasdaq COMP, -0.03% opened about 43 points, 0.4%, higher, at about 9,446, hitting a fresh intraday high.

On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.03% ended the day at a record, with a gain of 18.71 points, or 0.2%, at 9,402.48 for a record close. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.24% rose 3.79 points, or 0.1%, to end at 3,325.54, while the Dow DJIA, -0.06% lagged behind, ending 26.18 points lower at 29,160.09, off 0.1%.

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JAN
24
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Flash eurozone PMI shows subdued start to 2020 but also hints at “green shoots”

Flash eurozone PMI shows subdued start to 2020 but also hints at “green shoots”
  • Flash Eurozone PMI unchanged at 50.9 in January, indicative of0.1% GDP growth
  • Manufacturing remains major drag on growth, but forward-lookingindicators improve
  • Service sector expansion cools amid weak job creation, butyear-ahead expectations improve
  • Germany sees further signs of reviving, France growth slows.Rest of region sees growth at a six-and-a-half-year low

The eurozone economy started 2020 with growth remaining subduedas manufacturing continued to act as a substantial drag and servicesector growth weakened. However, signs of brighter times ahead wereseen in several forward-looking indicators, notably in thebeleaguered manufacturing sector, which add to our expectationsthat growth will pick up in coming months.

At 50.9 in January, the 'flash' IHS Markit Eurozone CompositePMI® remained unchanged on December, running only moderately abovethe 50.0 neutral level to signal that GDP is growing at a quarterlyrate of just 0.1%, similar to the rate indicated by the surveys forthe fourth quarter of 2019. The past five months have seen theweakest expansion since mid-2013.

Other key indicators showed signs of improvement, however, withnew order growth ticking higher again to reach the fastest sincelast June, jobs growth lifting slightly from December's five-yearlow, and future sentiment rising to a 16-month high.

Brighter manufacturing outlook

Manufacturing remained a major drag on the eurozone economy.Although the rate of decline of factory output eased slightly tothe weakest since last August, the overall rate of contractionremained marked and comparable with goods production falling at aquarterly rate approaching 1%.

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JAN
24
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US Open – Coronavirus ruins Lunar New Year, Intel adds fuel to tech rally, EZ PMIs stabilize, BOE cut odds ease, Tech Earnings good so far, Oil and Gold slide

US Open – Coronavirus ruins Lunar New Year, Intel adds fuel to tech rally, EZ PMIs stabilize, BOE cut odds ease, Tech Earnings good so far, Oil and Gold slide - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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The coronavirus outbreak is intensifying, and Beijing is scrambling.  Outrage is growing as local officials failed to address the contagion risks earlier.  Millions of Chinese are unable to travel to see their families to celebrate the Lunar New Year, which is the equivalent of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday combined.  China has the highest emergency levels in place and is locking down 40 million people.  State media has the death toll at 26 and concerns are growing that the travel bans in place will start to have a major impact on the economy with some calling for a 1 percentage point hit or greater with Chinese GDP. 

Europe’s PMI day

The eurozone PMI data readings are hinting that Europe is turning a corner.  The German PMI readings all reached 5-month highs as optimism will grow that the bottom is in place for Europe’s manufacturing woes.  The composite reading for the region as a whole was unchanged, but overall this was a positive PMI day that should see optimism grow for the euro once we see start to see safe-haven flows for US Treasuries ease.

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JAN
24
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Number of nights spent in the EU up by 2.4%

In 2019, the number of nights spent in tourist accommodation in the European Union (EU) is expected to have reached more than 3.2 billion, up by 2.4% compared with 2018. Since 2009, there has been a steady increase in the number of nights spent in tourist accommodation establishments in the EU, notably driven by a rise in nights spent by non-residents of the country visited.

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JAN
24
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Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 27 January 2020

Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 27 January 2020

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest WeekAhead Economic Preview. For the full report (including SpecialReports) please click on the link at the bottom of thearticle.

  • UK faces Brexit Day at end of week
  • FOMC and BoE decide monetary policy
  • US and Eurozone GDP
  • Bank of Japan document eyed for future policy changes

A week which sees the UK leaves the European Union is alsopacked with policy action from the Fed and the Bank of England,alongside GDP updates from major economies.

Brexit is high on the list of global concerns. Increasing marketjitters are expected as Brexit Day approaches at the end of theweek, with analysts assessing the ability of the UK government tomake trade deals with the EU before the transition period runs outat the end of the year. The Bank of England also meets in the week,and prospects of a rate cut hinge on British economic performanceat the start of the year.

In the US, where Fed policymakers meet during the week, the FOMClooks set to continue sitting on its hands for an extended periodbarring any material changes to the outlook. Nonetheless, rhetoricfrom the press conference will be scrutinised by analysts for cluesas to future policy direction. Meanwhile fourth quarter GDP updatewill be in focus as well, with expectations of steady growth duringthe closing quarter of last year.

In the eurozone, updated GDP figures will likely provideconfirmation to expectations of subdued growth. The December PMIsurveys showed that the European economy closed out 2019 in itsworst spell since 2013, with near-stagnant demand and gloomyprospects likely extending into the new year.

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JAN
24
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Asia Midday: Coronavirus Steals The Headlines

Coronavirus continues to steal the world’s headlines, with Chinese authorities quarantining additional cities around Wuhan. Chinese New Year public festivities were cancelled across the mainland and Hong Kong, with even Jackie Chan’s latest movie release, postponed.

Mainland stock markets had their worst pre-Chinese New Year close on record. The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 falling by 3.0% and Hang Seng falling 1.50%. With the mainland now closed until next Friday, the Hang Seng may well be in the firing line again today as a proxy to the increased worries about the viral outbreak.

I have been asked extensively whether this is a SAR’s rerun of 2003? The honest answer is, we don’t know yet. The virus itself is not the issue from an economic perspective; instead, it is the self-perpetuating negative feedback loop on economic activity, that it creates as people avoid moving around, shopping or gathering in places with lots of other people.

What is unfortunate is the timing. Central banks have eased aggressively around the world, pumping up asset markets to record levels to offset the US/China trade-war. It has left precious little in the tank amongst developed countries to offset a sudden and unexpected potential slowdown. Asia itself has more gas left in the tank though, with the currency appreciation of the last two months, leaving regional economies – ex Thailand, South Korea and Australia – room to ease policy rates if necessary.

Although lost in the noise of viral outbreak/armageddon headlines, the world has continued to go about its business with the US and Asian data suggesting that the recovery remains on track. US Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims both released lower than expected. This morning, Japan Inflation climbed to 0.80% YoY, and the Jibun Manufacturing and Services PMI’s both posted well above expected rises, at 49.3 and 52.1 respectively. Health scares aside, the central bank primed post-trade-deal recovery in Q1 seems to be proceeding according to plan.

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JAN
24
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Coronavirus concerns stall momentum as New Year celebrations begin

Coronavirus concerns stall momentum as New Year celebrations begin - MarketPulseMarketPulse

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Death toll rises

The latest news out of China reports that 10 cities in Hubei province (where Wuhan is situated) have suspended some public transport as the number of victims falling to the virus has risen to 25 with a total of 830 other cases reported as at yesterday. China press has reported that work has started on building a new hospital in Wuhan to deal with the escalating virus. It should be completed in six days!!

 

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