Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 17 February 2020

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

  • Flash manufacturing and services PMIs to provide clues of initial virus impact
  • FOMC, RBA and RBI policy meeting minutes

The flash PMI surveys will be an eagerly awaited focus of the week, providing the first insights into how the global economy has fared during the Covid-19 outbreak.

News of the virus came on the heels of the global PMI surveys having shown the pace of worldwide economic expansion picking up to a ten-month high in January, driven to a large extent by easing global trade tensions and the pass-through of prior central bank stimulus. The concern is that slumping demand from China, a downturn in travel and tourism and supply chain disruptions will have all dampened growth in February. More information is needed to gauge the degree to which global economic growth will be hit, hence the February PMIs being so important in helping assess both the depth and breadth of the initial impact.

In the US, the PMIs showed a lop-sided economy remaining reliant on the service sector as an engine of growth, with manufacturing struggling to expand due to weak exports in particular. The US also sees the Nevada caucuses and the earnings season remains in full flow.

Eurozone flash PMI numbers need to continue to show the economy expanding to keep the ECB comfortable with remaining on hold. Any renewed slide in the surveys will raise recession risks. Similarly in the UK, markets will be looking to see if a January post-election rebound in the PMIs has enough legs to keep the Bank of England from cutting rates. UK job market, inflation and retail sales are also updated.

In Asia Pacific, Japanese and Australian flash PMI data are joined by a clutch of trade data. The Japanese survey numbers follow signs of a rebound in activity after a poor fourth quarter, while Australia is battling against a slide in its currency to a ten-year low on virus impact fears.

Policy action comes from Indonesia while central banks in the US, Australia and India release the minutes from their prior meetings, all of which will be scoured for clues as to how policymakers assess the health of local and global economies to gauge the potential for further stimulus.

Contact us

PMI commentary: Chris Williamson

Europe commentary: Ken Wattret

APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas and Bernard Aw

Recent week ahead economic previews

Week of 10 February

Week of 3 February

Week of 27 January

Week of 20 January

Week of 13 January

© 2020, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

Download full report


© IHSMarkit

Country Loans (clone of authorised firm)
US open – COVID-19, earnings, data, gold, oil

Quick Post

What would you like to share today?
You can also favorite these post types to have quicker access
Share and stream what's new to our social channels...
  Add photos   Click or drop photos here to upload.
Pending Preparing to upload... Uploading... Upload failed. (see details) Upload completed.
( left)
Add files Click or drop files here to upload
Type a hashtag to start searching for tags
Keyword does not match any tags
Type a name of your friend
No friends found by that name
Keyword does not match any emoticons

Broker Search

Latest Spot Rate

Wait a minute, while we are rendering the calendar
How It Works | About | Contact | Contributors | Privacy Policy | Advertise
© 2009 - 2020 ChatPips. All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use: The content on this website is solely for educational and informational purposes and is not a substitute for official documentation of the original owners. This site is not operated by, sponsored by, endorsed by, or affiliated with any parties in any way. The website owner, the authors, the publishers, and all affiliates of ChatPips.com assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. You should always check and confirm with several sources with your licensed financial advisor and tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment before making your final decision. Your continued usage and browsing of information on this website constitute your agreement to this Terms of Use. If you do not agree, please do not proceed to use this website. Brokers Directory: The companies license information were obtained from respective local jurisdiction. All other company and/or product names are trademarks and/or registered trademarks of their respective owners.