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MAY
25
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Monday 25th May: Asian markets mostly higher

25 May 2020

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.73%, Shanghai Composite up 0.15%, Hang Seng down 0.17%, ASX up 2.16%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1728.60 (-0.40%), Silver at $17.47 (-1.26%), Brent Oil at $35.14 (+0.03%), WTI Oil at $33.45 (+0.60%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.657, UK 10-year yield at 0.173, Germany 10-year yield at -0.502

News & Data:

  • (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m -0.40% vs -4.80% expected
  • (GBP) Retail Sales m/m -18.10% vs -15.80% expected
  • S.-China Ties Have Become ‘Extremely Hostile,’ Former Official Says
  • China Sets Yuan Fix At Weakest Since 2008
  • Japan Econ Min Nishimura: Panel approves declaration to lift emergency

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR long 72K vs 78K long last week. Longs trimmed by 6K
  • GBP short 19K vs 14K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • JPY long 28K vs 28K long last week. Longs unchanged
  • CHF long 9K vs 7K long last week. Longs increased by 2K
  • AUD short 39k vs 35K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • NZD short 16K vs 16K short last week. Shorts unchanged
  • CAD short 35k vs 32K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K.

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are mostly higher on Monday despite the lackluster cues from Wall Street Friday amid concerns over rising U.S.-China tensions. Optimism about a recovery in growth following the reopening of economies and hopes about more stimulus measures by global central banks helped lift stocks.

Mainland Chinese shares traded mixed: The Shanghai composite rose 0.2%, the Shenzhen composite was fractionally lower. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index retraced earlier losses of more than 1% to trade down 0.12%, extending Friday’s losses of more than 5%.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index added 1.7%, while the Topix index was up 1.7%. The Australian market is notably higher, with stocks rising across the board. The benchmark ASX 200 added 2.2%. Markets in Singapore, India and Indonesia were shut due to public holidays.

The U.S. dollar traded at 99.906 against a basket of its peers, a touch higher than its previous close at 99.863. Action in currencies was subdued as the euro held near a one-week trough, while the Australian dollar was slightly lower.

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MAY
25
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Ex dividend 26/05/2020

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MAY
23
Comments

Monday 25th May: Weekly Technical Outlook and Review

Key risk events today:

Limited.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

Weekly gain/loss: +0.75%

Weekly close: 1.0898

Weekly perspective:

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MAY
23
Comments

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 25 – 29, 2020

First, a review of last week's events:- EUR/USD. Tensions between the U.S. and China continue, which can not but affect the markets. President Trump said he will respond "very strongly" to Beijing's legislative initiatives. This applies, in particular, to the desire of the PRC to strengthen control over Hong Kong, which has previously served as the...
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MAY
22
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What Are Derivatives: An Introduction

In finance, a derivative represents a contract deriving its value from the performance of an underlying entity.

In a nutshell, derivatives are agreements between buyers and sellers.

Derivatives specify a future price at which an asset can be sold, known as the underlier. This could be a physical commodity, such as corn, wheat or natural gas, or a financial security, such as stocks, bonds and foreign exchange.

Derivatives are widely employed across financial markets – below are the most common.

Forward Contract

A forward contract is a straightforward over-the-counter (OTC) product, obligating one party to buy the underlier and the other party to sell, for a set price on a specified date in the future.

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MAY
22
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Ex dividend 25/05/2020

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MAY
22
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Friday 22nd May: Hong Kong plummets as China talks of new restrictions

22 May 2020

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.80%, Shanghai Composite down 1.89%, Hang Seng down 5.69%, ASX down 0.96%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1736.75 (+0.86%), Silver at $17.42 (+0.33%), Brent Oil at $34.30 (-4.88%), WTI Oil at $31.86 (-6.07%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.636, UK 10-year yield at 0.139, Germany 10-year yield at -0.511

News & Data:

  • (GBP) Retail Sales m/m -18.10% vs -15.80% expected
  • (NZD) Retail Sales q/q -0.70% vs -1.50% expected
  • (USD) Flash Manufacturing PMI 39.8 vs 39.3 expected
  • (USD) Unemployment Claims 2438K vs 2400K expected
  • (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -43.1 vs -40 expected
  • (GBP) Flash Services PMI 27.8 vs 24.1 expected
  • (GBP) Flash Manufacturing PMI 40.6 vs 35.1 expected
  • China unconcerned by US threat over HK security legislation: experts
  • BOJ Offers More Lending, No Extra Easing at Emergency Meet

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets, led by Hong Kong, are in negative territory on Friday following the overnight losses on Wall Street and on worries about rising U.S.-China tensions.

China said it plans to introduce new national security legislation in Hong Kong, raising fears of fresh protests over the city’s autonomy. In addition, China announced it will not set a GDP target for 2020, due to the uncertainty regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mainland Chinese stocks declined, with the Shanghai composite down more than 1.8% while the Shenzhen component shed 2.7%. The Nikkei 225 in Japan closed 0.8% lower while the Topix index ended its trading day 0.9% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led losses among the region’s major markets as it plummeted 5.7%, as of its final hour of trading.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 99.593 after seeing a decline this week from levels above 100. The yen brushed off the Bank of Japan’s new lending scheme to channel more money to small businesses, which mimics the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Main Street” programme.

Upcoming Events:

  • 11:30 AM GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m

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MAY
22
Comments

Friday 22nd May: Technical Outlook and Review

Key risk events today:

BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference; UK Retail Sales m/m; ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts; Canada Core Retail Sales m/m.

(Previous analysis as well as outside sources – italics).

EUR/USD:

Europe’s shared currency concluded lower against the US dollar Thursday, unwinding from the key figure 1.10, a move reaching as far south as May’s opening level coming in at 1.0943 on the H4 timeframe.

On the data front, the Eurozone shows signs of easing as lockdowns lift.

Markit noted:

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MAY
21
Comments

Ex dividend 22/05/2020

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MAY
21
Comments

Thursday 21st May: Asian markets lose on Japan data.

21 May 2020

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.21%, Shanghai Composite down 0.55%, Hang Seng down 0.67%, ASX down 0.41%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1737.95 (-0.81%), Silver at $17.75 (-1.59%), Brent Oil at $36.28 (+1.48%), WTI Oil at $34.16 (+2.00%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 0.669, UK 10-year yield at 0.203, Germany 10-year yield at -0.489

News & Data:

  • (EUR) German Flash Services PMI 31.4 vs 26.3 expected
  • (EUR) German Flash Manufacturing PMI 36.8 vs 39.3 expected
  • (EUR) French Flash Manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 36 expected
  • (EUR) French Flash Services PMI 29.4 vs 27.9 expected
  • (CAD) CPI m/m -0.70% vs -0.60% expected
  • (GBP) CPI y/y 0.80% vs 0.90% expected
  • Recession-hit Japan’s exports, imports fall due to pandemic

Markets Update:

Asian stocks were mixed on Thursday in a somewhat volatile session, with some indexes giving up gains from earlier in the session.

Investors were looking ahead to a key policy gathering in China that may yield more economic stimulus, while recent data from around the world reinforced views that a sustainable recovery may not come for several months. Japan’s trade data for April released by the country’s Ministry of Finance on Thursday showed exports in April plunging 21.9% as compared to a year earlier. That was less than the 22.7% drop predicted by economists in a Reuters poll.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed 0.2% lower while the Topix index finished its trading day 0.2%. Mainland Chinese stocks dipped on the day, with the Shanghai composite 0.6% while the Shenzhen component declined 0.9%. Shares in Australia slipped by the close, with the S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4%.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 99.303 after touching levels around 99 earlier. The greenback also gained against the Australian and New Zealand dollars in a sign that some investors remain averse to risk.

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