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  4. Wednesday, 06 November 2019
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昨日(4日)欧元区公布10月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)最终值为45.9,优于市场预期的45.7,但也是连续第九个月低于象征景气荣枯线50以下,代表制造业景气仍然深陷萎缩衰退的问题,而PMI数据具有前瞻性的指标意义,因此连续的下滑也等同于景气在短期内不会有扭转颓势的可能性。
目前欧元区制造商的新进工厂订单出现锐减,并且国内外市场的需求也全面疲软,因此企业正在出现快速的裁员潮,市场形容这现象是让人特别的担忧,主因会增添景气下滑从企业蔓延至一般家庭的风险,进而形成经济上的恶性循环。欧洲央行(ECB)以及国际货币基金(IMF)都提出呼吁欧元区政府增加支出,欧洲央行ECB前总裁德拉吉在上周任期结束前,也再度提醒各国实施财政刺激计划,而外界普遍预期继任者拉加德将会延续宽松政策,而ECB在9月已经推出一套充满争议性的货币刺激方案,来重振经济成长与通膨率,那欧元区经济是否能够渐渐扭转衰退现象必须多观察各项经济数据是否有所起色。

外汇技术分析(黄金XAUUSD):
今日外汇黄金(11月5日) 早盘在1509.5美元/盎司附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时级别观察走势符合昨日(11月4日)预测冲高失败遇上方筹码做大幅修正,目前受到美元强势反弹持续下跌,因此有机会跌深后出现反弹行情。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1511~1512美元/盎司,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1501~1502美元/盎司,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在1502.5美元盎司至1504美元/盎司区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置1501美元/盎司下方。

外汇技术分析(欧元/美元EURUSD):
今日外汇欧元/美元(11月5日) 早盘在1.11211附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时级别观察走势符合昨日(11月4日)预测拉回修正,目前受到美元强势反弹,使得欧元被动性走弱,因此有机会跌深触底部支撑出现反弹行情。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1.11450~1.11490,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1.11100~1.11140,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在1.11200至1.11240区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置1.11160下方。

外汇技术分析(英镑/美元GBPUSD):
今日外汇英镑/美元(11月5日) 早盘在1.28803附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察走势符合昨日(11月4日)预测拉回修正,上方有标准小型M头跌破颈线出现大跌,因此有机会大跌后出现反弹行情。
目前短线上方压力区间位于1.29150~1.29200,下行方向,初步支撑区间于1.28600~1.28650,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在1.28780至1.28840区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置1.28720下方。

外汇技术分析(纽币/美元NZDUSD):
今日外汇纽币/美元(11月5日) 早盘在0.63893附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察走势出现高点拉回修正,修正的量能有正常放量属于合理走势,因此有机会修正完后。
目前短线上方压力区间位于0.64450~0.64500,下行方向,初步支撑区间于0.63600~0.63650,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在0.64000至0.64080区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置0.63900下方。

外汇技术分析(纳斯达克指数Nas100):
今日外汇纳指(11月5日) 早盘在8214.5附近,从技术分析面切入,1小时线级别观察走势维持多头排列,按照布林通道K棒落于上轨与中轨间,视为强劲多头格局,加上上方无压力区间,因此有机会持续上涨,但要多注意瞬间拉回修正。
目前短线上方压力区间位于8255~8270点,下行方向,初步支撑区间于8188~8198点,操作心态偏短多为主,想进场做短多的投资者可考虑在8210至8220区间轻仓买进,止损点位可考虑设置8199下方。

今日外汇重点数据(数据名称/重要性/前值/预期):
1.中国10月财新服务业PMI/三颗星/51.3/51.1
2.澳大利亚至11月5日澳洲联储利率决定/三颗星/0.75%/0.75%
3.英国10月服务业PMI/三颗星/49.5/49.7
4.欧元区9月PPI月率/三颗星/-0.5%/0.1%
5.美国9月贸易帐(亿美元)/三颗星/-549/-525
6.美国10月Markit服务业PMI终值/三颗星/51/51
7.美国10月ISM非制造业PMI/三颗星/52.6/53.4

更多外汇资讯请点我/]外汇[/URL]).
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